Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.381221 2.526681 2.685746 2.874527 3.095159 3.348483 3.667042
2025-08-24 2.220159 2.396865 2.598083 2.848636 3.159250 3.542433 4.070835
2025-08-31 2.114793 2.308412 2.534766 2.825931 3.202370 3.692730 4.422327
2025-09-07 2.054291 2.262661 2.511633 2.840917 3.282823 3.888526 4.861509
2025-09-14 1.953022 2.159019 2.407371 2.739682 3.192861 3.828263 4.886431
2025-09-21 1.902439 2.113303 2.370566 2.720240 3.207705 3.913360 5.152484
2025-09-28 1.843856 2.053965 2.312087 2.666181 3.166352 3.904731 5.246034
2025-10-05 1.836422 2.057188 2.332214 2.716686 3.274897 4.134384 5.820251
2025-10-12 1.841206 2.074926 2.370497 2.792345 3.424113 4.446353 6.658696
2025-10-19 1.811363 2.046437 2.345616 2.776429 3.430463 4.512834 6.970164
2025-10-26 1.790832 2.028802 2.333783 2.777293 3.460948 4.621941 7.414336
2025-11-02 1.749241 1.982316 2.281267 2.716509 3.388629 4.533566 7.307035
2025-11-09 1.722242 1.955155 2.255238 2.694928 3.380763 4.569564 7.569848
2025-11-16 1.698354 1.931112 2.232219 2.675993 3.374637 4.605548 7.838771
2025-11-23 1.677125 1.909768 2.211858 2.659494 3.370339 4.642259 8.117276
2025-11-30 1.669293 1.905511 2.214179 2.675761 3.419663 4.787079 8.803205
2025-12-07 1.626159 1.853509 2.149452 2.589546 3.292435 4.563244 8.131234
2025-12-14 1.609799 1.836720 2.132872 2.574944 3.285327 4.584126 8.342529
2025-12-21 1.583346 1.805999 2.096361 2.529307 3.223767 4.489252 8.118268
2025-12-28 1.590474 1.819866 2.121458 2.576534 3.320846 4.727275 9.200459
2026-01-04 1.604978 1.843632 2.160586 2.646055 3.460186 5.074949 11.082818
2026-01-11 1.592331 1.830460 2.147326 2.634062 3.454311 5.097108 11.424276
2026-01-18 1.585116 1.824403 2.143833 2.636867 3.474559 5.180210 12.166133